Data as of mid-September 2026. Figures cited from TrendForce and trade press; spot prices move weekly — treat this as a snapshot, not a quote.
The memory market has stayed tight through Q3 2026. The AI and HBM build-out is absorbing wafer capacity that used to feed conventional DRAM, so mainstream parts remain in short supply and supplier quotes stay firm even when spot demand softens.
What the spot tape is showing
According to TrendForce, mainstream DDR4 rose about 1.78% week-on-week on 2Gx8 orders in early September, while DDR5 spot demand remained limited. The pattern is consistent: end-demand at spot is uneven, but disciplined supplier pricing keeps the floor elevated. Earlier in July, TrendForce noted China spot prices showing early signs of easing, with second-hand 16 GB DDR4 reportedly falling over 30% from its peak — a reminder that the spot market can correct faster than contract.
Why prices stay firm
Two forces dominate. First, HBM and server DDR5 for AI consume capacity that would otherwise serve consumer and industrial DRAM. Second, the top suppliers have pivoted to high-value products, leaving a vacancy in mainstream DRAM that Chinese fabs are filling — CXMT has reportedly reached roughly 10% of global DRAM revenue share (TechPowerUp, China Daily), which adds supply but not fast enough to break the cycle.
The 3-6 month view
Multiple houses and analysts expect Q4 2026 to be the price high point or inflection. The practical read for buyers: if you need mainstream DDR4/DDR5 into year-end, lock contract quantities and dates now rather than chasing spot; if you are over-bought, watch the second-hand channel for the first real softening.
What to do
Map exposure by grade and density, second-source to credible Chinese alternatives, and keep samples validated so a contract decision is not blocked by qualification. Our market desk tracks this weekly.